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Markets/2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?
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2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$402

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

5% / 8%

Spread

2.60pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…

2026

Full event →
Will the Democratic Party control the House a
85%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate
53%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate
48%
below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm
35%
Will the Republican Party control the House a
16%
between 195 and 199 House seats after the 202
14%
between 190 and 194 House seats after the 202
14%
between 205 and 209 House seats after the 202
11%
between 200 and 204 House seats after the 202
10%
between 210 and 214 House seats after the 202
7%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds un
7%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
4%
between 220 and 224 House seats after the 202
2%
between 215 and 219 House seats after the 202
2%
230 or more
2%
between 225 and 229 House seats after the 202
1%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
1%

17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $402 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/814126

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