Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 95% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
94% / 96%
Spread
2.80pp
Expert Signal
95%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1281165
This event has 31 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this