Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?
FM Estimate
84%Market Price
87%Wikipedia Attention
This event has 20 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1280890