Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
25% / 26%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
Event Distribution
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
35% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
36% → 22%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
30% YES (+8.0pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370727
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.