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Markets/Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
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Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
73%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

25% / 26%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

-5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

22% YES — lowest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -13.5pp

36% → 22%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

30% YES (+8.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 73¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370727

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.