Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$529
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
14% / 17%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National…
2026
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Current
8% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $529 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503859
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Venue Divergence
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