Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$305
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
10% / 10%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Current
9% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $305 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503861
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