Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
13% / 16%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1578758
This event has 15 active outcome markets. Tisza: 74%, TISZA: 31%, Fidesz–KDNP: 27%.
TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this