Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:56 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-39.4pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 24?

March

Full event →

above $1,800 on March 24?

100%

above $1,900 on March 24?

99%

above $2,000 on March 24?

98%

above $2,100 on March 24?

79%

above $2,200 on March 24?

27%

above $2,300 on March 24?

above $2,400 on March 24?

above $2,500 on March 24?

above $2,600 on March 24?

above $2,700 on March 24?

above $2,800 on March 24?

11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-47.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

40%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -29.0pp

56% → 28%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

6% YES (+1.3pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628567

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