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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 22?
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Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 22?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

11% / 14%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?

March

Full event →
above $66,000 on March 22?
100%
above $68,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 22?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 23?
98%
above $66,000 on March 23?
90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
17%
$71,000 on March 22?
9%
$80,000 in March?
9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
7%
above $72,000 on March 23?
7%
$85,000 in March?
2%
$72,000 on March 22?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
$73,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
above $74,000 on March 23?
1%
$74,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$75,000 on March 22?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$77,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
above $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $72,000 on March 22?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
above $70,000 on March 22?
0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
$80,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
greater than $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%

45 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

13% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 22?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1678558

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