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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26?
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Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26?

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+8.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?

March

Full event →
$80,000 by December 31, 2026?
73%
$74,000 March 23-29?
12%
$100 in March?
9%
$76,000 March 23-29?
4%
$71,000 on March 26?
3%
$80,000 in March?
2%
$110 in March?
2%
$72,000 on March 26?
2%
$120 in March?
1%
$1.80 in March?
1%
$78,000 March 23-29?
1%
$85,000 in March?
1%
$130 in March?
0%
$2.00 in March?
0%
$73,000 on March 26?
0%
$90,000 in March?
0%
$82,000 March 23-29?
0%
$80,000 March 23-29?
0%
$2.40 in March?
0%
$2.20 in March?
0%
$140 in March?
0%
$150 in March?
0%
$2.60 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$3.20 in March?
0%
$160 in March?
0%
above $80,000 on March 28?
0%
$3.00 in March?
0%
$2.80 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
above $80,000 on March 27?
0%
$74,000 on March 26?
0%
$76,000 on March 26?
0%
$75,000 on March 26?
0%
$78,000 on March 26?
0%
$77,000 on March 26?
0%

39 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-51.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

26%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -29.0pp

47% → 18%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

0% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+8.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+8.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1724733

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