Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Closes April 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
88% / 89%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
89%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1736930
This event has 25 active outcome markets. GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026: 89%, Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 89%, 5: 46%.
GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-4.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this