Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.1pp above current market price; market at 46% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.4% ↑, ETH +1.4% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$40K
Liquidity
$114K
Bid / Ask
45% / 46%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
46%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823777
This event has 11 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?: 92%, Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 46%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 17%.
Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: +12.0pp
35% → 47%
Apr 6, 2026
Peak probability
48% YES — highest in period
Apr 6, 2026
Current
46% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this