Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$53K
Liquidity
$184K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823775
This event has 17 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?: 70%, Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 33%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 12%.
Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -15.5pp
21% → 6%
Apr 2, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-13.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this