ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10?

Closes April 10, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
29%FIS
1ppvs market 30%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 30% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -0.3% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -0.3% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓
-0.8pp
Live compute03:57 AM

Polymarket Price

44%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$83K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

29% / 31%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846090

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+45.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Apr 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Apr 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +36.0pp

11% → 47%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

60% YES — highest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Current

55% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 44%99%
Buy YES@ 44¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this