Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?
Closes April 10, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 5% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -0.3% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$98K
Liquidity
$46K
Bid / Ask
5% / 6%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $98K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846092
This event has 27 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 9?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Biggest move: +14.3pp
5% → 19%
Apr 8, 2026
Peak probability
20% YES — highest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this