ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+11.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 12?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879348

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this