Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?
Closed April 11, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$256K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
98% / 99%
Spread
1.30pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $256K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928733
This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
77% YES — lowest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: -15.0pp
92% → 77%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
88% YES (+11.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-11.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this