ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Hawks vs. Heat
Share on X

Hawks vs. Heat

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$2.3M

Liquidity

$310K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Hawks vs. Heat" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.3M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Hawks vs. Heat." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891035

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5: 51%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5: 48%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5: 45%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-49.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 13, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -26.0pp

67% → 41%

Apr 12, 2026

Peak probability

73% YES — highest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this