Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
43% / 46%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
45%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1952736
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5: 51%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5: 47%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5: 45%.
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
45% YES (-3.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this