Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.6pp below current market price; market at 89% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
86% / 88%
Spread
2.50pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928755
This event has 44 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
95% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
88% YES (-3.3pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
+4.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this