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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?

Closes April 16, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
87%FIS
2ppvs market 89%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.6pp below current market price; market at 89% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.3% ↓, ETH -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑
-1.6pp
Live compute07:27 PM

Polymarket Price

91%YES
9%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

86% / 88%

Spread

2.50pp

Expert Signal

93%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+5.4pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928755

Outcome Markets44 markets

This event has 44 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%.

price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?

91%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

95% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

88% YES (-3.3pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 91%99%
Buy YES@ 91¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 9¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this