Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.5pp below current market price; market at 5% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.8% ↓, ETH -2.4% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928764
This event has 20 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 15: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 15: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -6.2pp
13% → 6%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
5% YES (-1.6pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this