Spread: Magic (-2.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
76% / 81%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
79%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-2.5)" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Magic (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943893
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
80% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
79% YES (-2.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this