Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$39K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-9.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Magic (-9.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1950338
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
3%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -65.5pp
69% → 3%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
69% YES — highest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this