Spread: Magic (-11.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$66K
Bid / Ask
54% / 56%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
55%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-11.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Magic (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1951817
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-11.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
55% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this