Spread: Magic (-13.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
47% / 48%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
48%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-13.5)" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Magic (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1958172
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-13.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
48% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this