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Markets/Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
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Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES
72%NO

Volume 24h

$59

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

23% / 33%

Spread

10.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666657

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this