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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$150

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

16% / 20%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

2027

Full event →
3.25% or lower before 2027?
64%
3.0% or lower before 2027?
31%
1.25% or lower before 2027?
26%
2.75% or lower before 2027?
18%
2.5% or lower before 2027?
15%
1.5% or lower before 2027?
12%
2.25% or lower before 2027?
11%
2.0% or lower before 2027?
11%
4.25% or higher before 2027?
10%
1.75% or lower before 2027?
9%
0.25% or lower before 2027?
7%
5.25% or higher before 2027?
6%
0% or lower before 2027?
6%
5.5% or higher before 2027?
4%
4.75% or higher before 2027?
4%
5.0% or higher before 2027?
3%

16 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $150 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690215

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.