Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$57K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -5.5pp
20% → 14%
Mar 11, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $57K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/763535
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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