Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
6% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/904738
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