Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$182K
Liquidity
$46K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $182K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1068317
This event has 32 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 99%, Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after laun: 95%.
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -9.0pp
17% → 8%
Mar 30, 2026
Peak probability
17% YES — highest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-25.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this