Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
88% / 90%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
86%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
89% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
86% YES (-3.5pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1627969
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