Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
58% / 60%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
59%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
61% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: +5.0pp
61% → 66%
Mar 27, 2026
Current
59% YES (-2.5pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1627967
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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