Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -3.5pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -3.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$173K
Liquidity
$38K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $173K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1938105
This event has 26 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this