Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
42% / 45%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
44%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943405
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5: 51%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5: 49%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5: 46%.
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
43% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 11, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
79%
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: +36.0pp
43% → 79%
Apr 12, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this