Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
90% / 94%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Current
92% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-6.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1641496
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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