MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Closes July 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
57% / 58%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
58%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 58%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1541748
This event has 8 active outcome markets. MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after: 53%, MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after: 49%, MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after l: 32%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
55%
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
49% → 55%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
55% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
54% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this