MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Closes July 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$85K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666614
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?: 100%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this