Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +7.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
1% / 6%
Spread
5.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 5.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706405
This event has 23 active outcome markets. Military action against Iran continues throug: 73%, Military action against Iran ends on April 15: 3%, Military action against Iran ends on April 30: 3%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this