Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +7.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
2% / 5%
Spread
3.70pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 3.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706418
This event has 8 active outcome markets. June 30: 69%, April 30: 31%, April 15: 13%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
3% YES (+1.2pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+12.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this