US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2.0M
Liquidity
$475K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
66% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
6% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 1, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 2, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +23.0pp
22% → 45%
Mar 9, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.0M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466015
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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