Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

Data as of Apr 7, 2026, 04:59 AM UTC

Closes May 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

42%FIS

+1ppvs market 42%

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +0.3% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +0.3% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑

+2.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute04:59 AM

Polymarket Price

42%YES

59%NO

Volume 24h

$26K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.8pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1896585

Outcome Markets14 markets

This event has 14 active outcome markets. December 31: 75%, June 30: 56%, May 31: 47%.

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

75%