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Market Closed

This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Share on X

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

63%YES
37%NO
Vol 24h$16K
Liquidity$23K
Bid / Ask63% / 65%
Spread2.00pp
ClosedApr 21, 2026

FM Estimate

65%

Market Price

63%
↓ Underpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals+6.2pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 68%, April 22, 2026: 63%, May 31, 2026: 60%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-10.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-21). "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2036399