Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.3pp below current market price; market at 66% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.6% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$44K
Liquidity
$39K
Bid / Ask
66% / 67%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
67%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?" at 67% YES / 33% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 67%, NO 33%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918791
This event has 20 active outcome markets. June 15, 2026: 100%, June 30, 2026: 99%, May 31, 2026: 99%.
US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this