US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 94% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
93% / 95%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
95%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937463
This event has 6 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 99%, May 31, 2026: 98%, June 15, 2026: 97%.
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
73% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Biggest move: +9.5pp
73% → 82%
Apr 10, 2026
Peak probability
96% YES — highest in period
Apr 10, 2026
Current
94% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this