Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 01:40 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

19%FIS

+1ppvs market 17%

underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.5pp above current market price; market at 17% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.1% ↑, VIX +0.9% ↑, Gold +0.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +2.1% ↑, VIX +0.9% ↑, Gold +0.9% ↑

+5.3pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute01:40 PM

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

16% / 18%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+1.6pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919421

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 7: 100%, April 30, 2026: 17%, April 30: 14%.