Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 01:40 PM UTC

Closes May 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

31%FIS

+2ppvs market 29%

underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.5pp above current market price; market at 29% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.1% ↑, VIX +0.9% ↑, Gold +0.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +2.1% ↑, VIX +0.9% ↑, Gold +0.9% ↑

+5.3pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute01:40 PM

Polymarket Price

29%YES

71%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

28% / 30%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

29%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+1.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919425

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 96%, June 15, 2026: 96%, May 31, 2026: 93%.

US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

96%