Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
23% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -23.5pp
45% → 21%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
45% YES — highest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485169
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Correlated Markets
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