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Markets/Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
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Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

5% / 7%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

March

Full event →
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
99%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
66%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
64%
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
51%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
22%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
20%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?
8%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
7%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
7%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
6%
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
5%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
5%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
4%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?
3%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
3%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31
3%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
2%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?
1%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
1%
Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?
1%

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: +23.0pp

12% → 35%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

35% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472018

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