Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370728
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited : 19%, Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Eps: 19%, Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Eps: 13%.
Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s islan
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this