Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$36K
Liquidity
$118K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823784
This event has 18 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 2?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 91%, December 31, 2026: 64%.
Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this